RATINGS 2011-2021

As we discussed last week, team ratings are valuable in determining the relative strengths of teams in a particular season. We can also use them to compare one season’s performance with another, enabling us to answer a few questions and perhaps settle a few arguments.

There is a caveat here, however. The rankings of all ten teams in any given season, when added, must equal ZERO. The more a team’s ranking diverges from zero, the greater its strength (or bigger its deficit) over other teams in THAT season.

Here we see Old Xavs compared each year with the high and lows of each particular season. The difference between the top and bottom rated teams indicates the season’s competitiveness. On this basis, the gap between the richest and poorest was the least in 2018. In that year, Old Melburnians won seven games, finished eighth and had a rating of -18. That year, Xavs had a rating of +1, significantly higher, but the interesting thing here is that they, too, won just seven games.

PREMIERS’ SEASONS COMPARED

Let’s look at the eleven highest rated teams of the past decade. We threw in second-placed SKOB’s season in 2019 because while they didn’t win the flag, their season ranks higher than their premiership the season before and Old Xavs’ flag in 2016. (And after the home and away season, they were fourth on the ladder)

‍

RATINGS AND FINALS

As we’ve seen above, the ratings highs and lows vary by the year. Individual wins and losses govern finals appearances, not the ratings, which measure the strength of performance over the period. Losing to the top team by a point might boost your rating, but it won’t earn you premiership points.

Let’s look at the highest-rated teams that missed the finals:

These ratings are not exceptionally high, but in some other years, low ratings were strong enough to get a team into the finals, as below. Check out Old Brighton in 2018. (Blues, Scotch and Xavs all had better ratings, but missed the cut.)

As we mentioned, getting the W is still the measure that counts. But ratings can tell us who is more likely to get those wins.

CLUBS COMPARED

Sixteen clubs have played Premier football over the ten seasons, with just two competing at the top echelon for that entire decade. Old Xaverians has the highest aggregate score over the period, but SKOB maintains the best average per season.  

‍